AHR999 Index

The AHR999 chart plots the index on a log-compressed right axis spanning 0.1 to 5. That gives the modern DCA-to-overbought range room to breathe while still marking historical blow-off spikes as top-edge overflow ticks. Spot price runs muted on a log left axis for orientation. The sage band below 0.45 is the DCA zone; the rust band above 1.2 is the overbought zone; horizontal reference lines mark both thresholds.

The 2013, 2017, and April 2021 peaks visible in the regime table read above the chart's axis ceiling — those points appear as overflow markers on the chart.

Today’s reading is 0.452, placing the index in the Accumulation range regime. The 7-day average is 0.460 and the 30-day average is 0.416. The spot figure auto-refreshes a few times a day in the browser; AHR999 itself is recomputed nightly from price and log-fit data the data sources page documents.

The AHR999 formula is the product of two ratios:

AHR999 = (Price / GeoMean200) × (Price / LogFit(t))

The 200-day geometric mean factor measures how stretched price is from its medium-term baseline. A geometric (rather than arithmetic) mean is used because Bitcoin moves multiplicatively — the geometric mean of $30k, $60k, $30k is $42k, which is a more honest representation of the “typical price level” of that window than the arithmetic mean of $40k.

The long-run power-law factor measures how stretched price is from a multi-year secular line. The fit is price ≈ a × t^b where t is days since the Bitcoin genesis block (2009-01-03). The power-law line grows sublinearly as the data accumulates — a price that “feels” the same relative to trend in 2024 as in 2014 produces a similar AHR999 contribution from this factor.

Multiplying the two captures both timeframes simultaneously. The geometric-mean ratio swings widely with price; the power-law ratio swings less. Their product yields a compact indicator that goes deeply sub-1 only when price is depressed on both timeframes (cycle lows), and goes well above 1 only when price is elevated on both (cycle peaks). The middle range — between 0.45 and 1.2 — is the index’s normal habitat.

Why DCA-positioning? Ah Hui’s 2018 essay framed AHR999 as a tool for systematic dollar-cost-averaging investors deciding whether to lean into a regular schedule (sub-0.45 territory), maintain it (0.45–1.2), or pause it (>1.2). The indicator is explicitly not a trade signal in either direction — it’s a regime tag for portfolio sizing.

AHR999 is most informative at extremes. Sub-0.45 readings have only fired during deep cycle bottoms — and uniquely on btc oak, the bottom-side threshold has held up consistently across all four cycles, with troughs clustered tightly between 0.244 (March 2020 Covid) and 0.285 (January 2015). The overbought side has compressed dramatically — the same reasoning that drives MVRV, MVRV-Z, RHODL, Reserve Risk, and Puell ceiling decay applies here. Pair AHR999 with the 200-week moving average and Power Law for a non-cohort positioning ensemble — same multi-timeframe philosophy, different smoothing.

Reading every canonical cycle anchor against the live series surfaces both the stability of the bottom band and the dramatic compression of the top band. Cycle peaks at 45.98, 83.60, 25.82, 9.25, 3.80, 1.95. Cycle troughs at 0.285, 0.282, 0.244, 0.273 — all four bottoms within ±0.04 of the 0.27 mean.

The cleanest way to see the regime shift on this chart is the per-cycle AHR999 peak, in order. Pulling the maximum reading inside each cycle’s topping window from the live series:

All six cycle peaks on record cleared the 1.2 overbought threshold — the indicator has not fully decoupled from late-cycle euphoria. But absolute levels have collapsed: the highest print on the entire history (83.60 in November 2013) is more than 40× the most recent peak (1.95 in March 2024). Both factors driving AHR999 are compressing in the same direction.

The 200-day geometric mean grows with price. Modern cycle expansions are smaller in magnitude than the early ones (the 2017 cycle ran 100×, 2021 ran 6×, 2024 ran ~3× from the prior bottom), so the geometric-mean factor rarely stretches past 2× even at peak euphoria. The early 2013 cycle ran >100× in months, producing geometric-mean factors near 8× on its own.

The long-run power-law fit grows with the data. Each additional year of price data pulls the secular trendline further from the early-2013 absolute levels, so the power-law-ratio factor compresses naturally. By 2024 the power-law fit had accumulated 13+ years of observations against a denominator that was effectively empty in 2013.

The bottom-side threshold holds because both factors compress symmetrically at cycle lows. When price drops to 30% of the 200-day baseline AND 30% of the long-run trend, the product is roughly 0.09 × 1 = 0.09 multiplied by 1 = 0.27 — which is almost exactly where the four canonical cycle troughs printed. The construction of the index is structurally favourable to a stable bottom signal in a way that the top-side reading is not.

Lost coins do not affect AHR999 directly — the metric is purely price-based. Patoshi-era dynamics matter only insofar as they shape the early-cycle log-fit; once the fit had settled by ~2014, AHR999 became fairly insensitive to the historical distribution of supply.

For a dollar-cost-averaging investor. This is the indicator’s explicit design audience. AHR999 below 0.45 is a tactical accumulation accelerator — sub-0.45 has fired at every cycle bottom on the record without compression, and the four troughs (0.285 / 0.282 / 0.244 / 0.273) sit in a remarkably tight band. Above 1.2, the original Ah Hui framing recommends pausing or reducing DCA contributions; a more cautious modern reading would flag the “real” overbought regime around 2× rather than 1.2×, since the absolute distribution has compressed.

For a cycle-timing trader. AHR999 reads similarly to the 200-week moving average and the Power Law — both are price-only positioning indicators built around long-run trend anchors. Pair AHR999 with cohort indicators (MVRV, SOPR) or supply-side ones (Puell) to get an orthogonal read on the cycle phase.

For a researcher. The full series carries daily resolution since 1 February 2011. The geometric-mean and power-law-fit construction details are documented on the methodology page.

The 1.2 ceiling has compressed by an order of magnitude. The 2013 and 2017 peaks printed extreme readings (45.98, 83.60, 25.82) that have not been matched since. The 2021 (×2) and 2024 peaks all cleared 1.2 but topped well below the historical extremes. The original Ah Hui “pause DCA above 1.2” rule would have pulled investors out at the start of every modern cycle — a costly false signal.

The power-law fit drifts. AHR999’s long-run factor depends on a log-fit of price against days since genesis. As the data accumulates, the fit shifts — modern AHR999 is not directly comparable to 2014 readings in absolute terms. The regime thresholds of 0.45 and 1.2 remain the cited anchors, but the expected time spent at each end of the range has narrowed as Bitcoin’s volatility has compressed. The bottom-side threshold has held empirically; the top-side has not.

No cohort or behavioural component. AHR999 is a price-only indicator. It does not see realized cap, holder cohorts, miner revenue, or derivative positioning. Its bottom-side reliability comes from the symmetric compression of both factors at deep lows; its top-side weakness comes from the same mechanism in reverse. Treat AHR999 as a positioning lens, not a market-microstructure tool.

Display compression on the upper rail. The chart’s log-compressed right axis spans 0.1 to 5, so the historical 25–84 spikes intentionally clip at the top edge instead of compressing the useful modern range. Read those overflow ticks as “above the plotted ceiling,” then compare the absolute number against the regime bands.

Canonical questions from Google’s “People also ask” block for bitcoin AHR999, answered against the data on this page.